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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I like that the "polls plus" version doesn't overreact to polls taken months before an election, and that it expects the race to tighten as the election gets closer, since they normally do.
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I like most things about Polls Plus. I like that it bakes in the convention bounce and VP home state bump. I'm not sure how I feel about adding the "Fundamentals"... it would make sense if the campaigns in question were headed by people that hue close to "Generic Democrat/Generic Republican" but I kind of feel like Trump and Clinton as candidates might cause standard indicators to be less prevalent.
Still it's good to have as a "Don't Freak Out" button.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
On that note, we are still a log way from the election, but it's important to note that early voting in some swing states actually starts after Labour Day in some swing states.
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If all the reports about Trump's ground game (or more accurately reports about the lack thereof) are accurate then I would expect Clinton to dominate early voting.