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Originally Posted by GGG
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Yes, it's an interesting read. I didn't realize Selzer had Clinton ahead by 18 in March--that now seems like a not-particularly-relevant data point (too far from the election, and perhaps an outlier--winning by 18 would be a truly unprecedented landslide). However, because the model looks at trend lines within a poll, it reacts strongly to a Selzer poll showing Clinton up by only 6.
I still think his model is likely very solid. I like that the "polls plus" version doesn't overreact to polls taken months before an election, and that it expects the race to tighten as the election gets closer, since they normally do.
On that note, we are still a log way from the election, but it's important to note that early voting in some swing states actually starts after Labour Day in some swing states.