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Old 08-10-2016, 02:33 PM   #106
Iowa_Flames_Fan
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Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan View Post
IFF...what's your take on Johnson? Does he have a chance to make some noise if things continue down the path they are on now.....ie Trump losing support because he is an idiot. I think most Trump supporters are so because they can't stomach voting for Clinton.
Really hard to say. Third party support is very difficult to poll, but the circumstances look good for Johnson to make some noise, but mostly (I would think) in traditionally "red" states like Utah or Montana.

To give a sense of how tough it is to poll third parties, Jill Stein is polling at about three times the percentage that Ralph Nader got in 2000, despite the fact that most voters haven't even heard of her. Highly unlikely she gets even 2% of the popular vote, let alone the 5% the polls would suggest.

With that said, could we be in a Ross Perot situation where a third party candidate gets significant traction? It's possible, but I don't know how we would know. Keep in mind that Perot's poll numbers at various times were far in excess of Johnson's, but in the end he got less than 10% of the PV and no electoral votes.
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