My view, for what it's worth, is that these numbers don't show much, if any, "tightening." Selzer still has Clinton up 6 in a 2-way race, and 4 in the 4-way race. Not that different from their prior numbers, and certainly not different enough to rule out statistical noise.
The USC/Dornsife poll is just odd. Odd results, odd methodology, odd everything. But it is worth noting that they were the only ones who had Trump ahead before the conventions, so in that context this result really just shows the bounce holding steady.
With that said, I would expect to see some tightening over the next few weeks. I would be pretty surprised if on Election Day Clinton won by 10 or 11 points. 4 or 5 is more likely in my view.
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