Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Totally out of nowhere question: what are the odds that polls are under-representing Trump's support in that they poll likely or registered voters, whereas he seems likely to get a more-than-usual chunk of his support from unlikely voters?
I suppose one response could be that you could've said the same thing about Sanders but polls remained normally predictive in his case. Just curious.
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Pretty low. Populists strike a chord early and gain their following early. Studies in neuroscience seem to indicate that being an undecided voter is a misnomer, that voters just refuse to commit to polling. What hurts your theory about Trump voters not reporting their voting preference is that Trump supporters are unabashed in their support for their candidate. If you like Trump, and his populist message, you really like him. These voters make no bones about it and are in your face with their support. If you don't like Trump there is little that is going to convert you to his populist message. There is substantial science to account for this block of voters and it is based on the way our brains are wired. Neuroscience suggests that if you aren't committed to Trump yet, you aren't holding your nose and going for him come ballot time, because your brain won't let you. So basically, if you have a brain, and it is functioning, and you haven't already committed, you aren't voting for Donald Trump.