Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Totally out of nowhere question: what are the odds that polls are under-representing Trump's support in that they poll likely or registered voters, whereas he seems likely to get a more-than-usual chunk of his support from unlikely voters?
I suppose one response could be that you could've said the same thing about Sanders but polls remained normally predictive in his case. Just curious.
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I don't have a great answer to this, but 538 says that overall, Clinton has been doing slightly better in 'likely voter' polls than otherwise, so there may be a bit of truth to what you're saying; however it's not a huge difference. However, traditionally, 'likely voter' polls tend to have a slight Republican bias, as likely voter polls may also discount things like youth vote that tend to be more Democrat. In the primaries, Trump consistently underperformed his polls slightly (despite the fact that he would always talk about how he overperformed his polls by an amazing amount).