As CHL said, it isn't about years, it's about pieces.
They have part of a very good core, but they are still awaiting other parts. They become contenders IMO when 2 or 3 more guys step up to the next level.
The most likely / most important are pretty obvious:
Bennett
Tkachuk
Hamilton
Hamilton is already close, and is a solid #3. But he can, and most likely will, take another step. When he does, they have their core on defense, and are looking at complementary pieces (of which they have many potential candidates).
Bennett is the most important, because you have to have 2 great Cs. He could take a huge leap this year, at which point they become a solid playoff team. Or he could take a few years to really get there. Or, he never does. Easily the most important piece and biggest question.
Tkachuk is also a pretty big factor because they also need at least one more top forward (and at least two to be a powerhouse). Tkachuk is the most likely bet, but there are also other candidates. Again, do we see that in a year? Two? Longer?
Then there is the wildcard of other possible breakouts. If any of Shinkaruk, Poirier, Ferland, Pribyl, Jankowski, Mangiapane, or someone else takes a big jump and becomes a serious top 6 forward, then the Flames are instantly a deep team (assuming Bennett is also there).
I think goaltending should be solid. We won't know untl the season gets going of course, but we should have the guys in place that will keep us competitive until one of the young guys blossoms into a true #1. How long will that take? Pointless to even guess. But I think the good news is that we should be just fine until that happens.
So lots of questions. But also lots of potential answers.
Predicting how long that will take is anyone's guess. But it is pretty easy to see what pieces we need. And it should be fun (and hopefully not a very long time) watching them emerge.
To answer the OP, I'll say that they are 'contenders' in 2017/18 (i.e. legitimate playoff team). And emerging as cup contenders the following year.
|