It makes no sense to talk about this in "years". None whatsoever. There's only one question to ask: what do the Flames need?
Most of the development needs to happen at forward. They're deeper at forward than they were, but outside of Gaudreau and to some extent Monahan, the top end quality hasn't arrived yet in spite of some potential waiting in the wings. They need either a high-end #1 center (which Monahan may become), or a second #1-center-quality guy to play 2nd line (which Bennett may become). They need a high end scoring RW. They need Matt Tkachuk to become a legitimate top 6 quality scoring forward, or for someone else to do so in his place (say, if Shinkaruk takes a big leap forward).
On defense, they're in good shape. They just need Hamilton to get back to at least the level he was in in Boston, which is probably a safe bet, and they need to replace Wideman with a solid second pairing guy. The 6-8 holes on the blue line shouldn't be too difficult to fill; presumably one of Nakladal or Jokipakka will slot in there, and depth D is available in free agency as long as you don't overspend on it (cough Engelland cough).
They then need above league average quality netminding. Top-five quality isn't required, just above league average and they'll be in striking distance. They're taking a shot with Elliot this year to see if he can provide it, but he's 31, so it's a stopgap at best. However, the goalie market is such currently that you can find good netminders on the cheap - the problem is that almost no one is guaranteed to actually work out once they get here. Still, this seems like less of a challenge.
That is what is needed before contender status can begin to be talked about. Of course, none of this matters if Glen Gulutzan can't put together a system that works with the corps he has.
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