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Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle
The jays are feast or famine, and have been for about the past decade, it's just more people care now so it gets talked about more. The team is built for Rogers Center. Built to hit homeruns, not for average.
Someone was saying earlier that the Jays have no glaring weaknesses in their lineup. I disagree. I would argue that as much as we've argued about pitching/bullpen, the Jays biggest weakness is an inability to drive in runs without the homerun and the fact that often time their homers are of the solo variety.
Good pitching generally beats good hitting. In the playoffs your are going to be getting a steady diet of good pitching. If the Jays can't knock a guy in from first or second with no outs without hitting a home run, they are going to have some serious trouble in the playoffs. When the ball is kept in play, it's hard for them to win.
Look at Kansas last year. If they got on base, the guy was going to score. They didn't need to drive it into the upper deck to score. A walk and a couple singles was going to get them a run.
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This is completely false. All the actual data shows that teams that hit a lot of homers are more successful in the playoffs. When run suppression is high, the ability to score runs in bunches is extremely valuable. The only reason is narrative about small ball winning in the playoffs exists is because 99% of the announcers are guys who played in that era and just spout off nostalgia. There's zero actual data behind it and just a bunch of aging ex-ball players ranting about how guys should play the game the way they played it.
The reason Kansas City won last year is because their BABIP was through the roof (every grounder they hit seemed to three or four bounce it's way through a hole) and because Alcedes Escobar, literally one of the worst hitters in the baseball, hit .500 against the Jays batting leadoff for some inexplicable reason. If Goins does the same, the Jays win that series easily.