From some of the 538 articles they do look at trend lines for privious polls. So if you are on a continuing downward trend a bad poll makes more of a difference then a bad poll with a history of up and down.
Not quite what your looking for but polls plus and polls only have a memory of what previously happened
Bet fair has Hillary at 78% right now which matches up with 538s model but I wonder if 538 has essentially become the bookie setting the line and the betting markets follow him rather than being an independent data point
Last edited by GGG; 08-04-2016 at 10:32 PM.
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