Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
It's exceedingly unlikely that Clinton will lose half her support to a third party, like the NDP did to the Liberals. As soon as polls showed the Liberals trending to be better positioned to defeat Harper, they gained ABC strategic voters en masse and cruised to victory. Clinton will not face a similar situation.
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Yep, Conservative poll numbers were pretty much dead on in predicting their vote share. In August they were polling in the 28-32% range and they ended up with 31.9% in October.
The main movement was how the Liberals and NDP would split the 60-65% of voters who didn't vote Conservative or for the Greens/Bloc and it wasn't particularly surprising that that movement went towards the Liberals rather than the NDP once it became clear the Conservatives were in trouble. That dynamic simply doesn't exist in the US.