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Originally Posted by Parallex
Exactly... not scientific. The science is what should be the driving force behind decisions like this.
Sigh... please show me this correlation (with accompanying data for the league average occurrences and occurrences amoung those with only minor variation in "innings pitched". That is such a bad argument... even the language is bad. An "innings" limit? Innings are a measure of outs. Outs don't cause injuries, stress causes injuries and stress is accumulated by the act of throwing not making outs.
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I don't think it can ever be scientific though. How could you possibly set up a study that had an appropriate control group? That's the main issue with this whole argument, you cannot prove it, nor disprove it.
So with that in mind, you look at your best alternative. In my opinion, looking at other pitchers with a jump in innings pitched and seeing what is going on with them next year is the best option. In my prior post it shows most of those guys either getting hurt or being extremely less effective than before. That's the correlation (notice I'm avoiding causation here).