I kind of wanted to avoid the Sanchez debate, but here I am. There is no way Sanchez stays a starter much longer (his start tomorrow is up for debate right now). It's hard to have a scientific study on something like this due to the lack of a "control" group, but recent history shows that big jumps in innings increase risk of injury.
Check out this article (
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/09/yea...-luis-severino). Each year it predicts pitchers that will get injured due to a large spike in innings pitched compared to their career high. His predictions (and results) from last year. The percentages was the increase in innings pitched compared to their previous career high:
Quote:
Jesse Hahn, Oakland (58.4%): Shut down in July with elbow discomfort and a right forearm strain, five years removed from Tommy John surgery.
Rubby De La Rosa, Arizona (46.5%): Made 32 starts; his 4.67 ERA (up from 4.43) was the second worst of any NL qualifier.
Daniel Norris, Toronto/Detroit (44.5%): Threw 150 2/3 combined innings in the minors and majors and missed four weeks with an oblique injury.
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City (38.9%): ERA rose from 3.20 to 4.08.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto (34.8%): Blew out his knee in spring training; missed five months.
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Now for his predictions for this year (with my results beside them):
Lance McCullers (56.7%) - Just placed on the 15 day DL with elbow discomfort. Came out of the game suddenly with no apparent trauma to the elbow
Noah Syndergaard (49.4%) - Issues with "deadarm" in July but appears to be doing okay now
Luis Severino (43.1%) - Stint on the DL earlier in the year and sent down to AAA after an 0-6 start
Carlos Martinez (41.5%) - Seems to be okay at this point
Tyler Duffey (31.3%) - Been terrible with a 7.15 ERA in his last 8 starts. Briefly removed from the rotation as he was that bad
I know none this is scientific, and is dealt with on a case by case basis, but there is sufficient evidence there to show a correlation between a spike in innings pitched, and resulting issues (injury or decreased effectiveness). This is why Sanchez will be on an innings limit, and why it is a good idea. The fact that he's been Cy Young like was just a bonus, but everyone knew this is coming, and realistically this is the right decision.