Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Now that the conventions are over, the polling season will begin in earnest, to the delight of number-crunchers everywhere.
Ipsos/Reuters has Clinton up 5 among likely voters in a two-way race.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=7324
For anyone sweating the details, the same survey is tied among likely voters in a four-way race. Among the larger "registered voters" sample, Clinton leads by 7.
Meanwhile, RABA Research has Clinton up 15!
http://www.rabaresearch.com/document...uly-2016-2.pdf
I have never heard of RABA Research, so no idea if they are reputable or fly-by-night. They previously had Clinton up by 6 when others showed a nearly tied race, so there may be a methodological issue here.
On the other hand Suffolk U. showed Clinton up 9 in PA and Mason-Dixon had a nearly tied race in Missouri; those results are consistent with a wide lead for Clinton nationwide--so the early indications are that we will see a "bounce" for Clinton in the wake of the DNC. |
Is there interest in having a separate number-crunchers thread for this, as we've done with past elections? Personally I like keeping that discussion separate from debates on the merits of candidates and policies.