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Iowa_Flames_Fan · 07-30-2016, 11:17 AM

Now that the conventions are over, the polling season will begin in earnest, to the delight of number-crunchers everywhere.

Ipsos/Reuters has Clinton up 5 among likely voters in a two-way race.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=7324

For anyone sweating the details, the same survey is tied among likely voters in a four-way race. Among the larger "registered voters" sample, Clinton leads by 7.

Meanwhile, RABA Research has Clinton up 15!
http://www.rabaresearch.com/document...uly-2016-2.pdf

I have never heard of RABA Research, so no idea if they are reputable or fly-by-night. They previously had Clinton up by 6 when others showed a nearly tied race, so there may be a methodological issue here.

On the other hand Suffolk U. showed Clinton up 9 in PA and Mason-Dixon had a nearly tied race in Missouri; those results are consistent with a wide lead for Clinton nationwide--so the early indications are that we will see a "bounce" for Clinton in the wake of the DNC.

07-30-2016, 11:17 AM	#9091
Iowa_Flames_Fan Referee Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Over the hill Exp:	Now that the conventions are over, the polling season will begin in earnest, to the delight of number-crunchers everywhere. Ipsos/Reuters has Clinton up 5 among likely voters in a two-way race. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=7324 For anyone sweating the details, the same survey is tied among likely voters in a four-way race. Among the larger "registered voters" sample, Clinton leads by 7. Meanwhile, RABA Research has Clinton up 15! http://www.rabaresearch.com/document...uly-2016-2.pdf I have never heard of RABA Research, so no idea if they are reputable or fly-by-night. They previously had Clinton up by 6 when others showed a nearly tied race, so there may be a methodological issue here. On the other hand Suffolk U. showed Clinton up 9 in PA and Mason-Dixon had a nearly tied race in Missouri; those results are consistent with a wide lead for Clinton nationwide--so the early indications are that we will see a "bounce" for Clinton in the wake of the DNC.