[Senator Clay Davis]

This isn't Brexit, a straight up and down vote. He has to win the electoral college and I posted it a ways back now, but if he loses Florida it's basically over. Relying on crazy ass Florida to avoid Trump isn't ideal, but he probably won't win it given the demos are pretty favorable to Hillary. And even if he does flip it, he still needs to flip Ohio and Pennsylvania, which won't be easy either. On top of that because he's so insane, he's bringing traditionally safe GOP states into play, so he'll have to play a lot more defense than a traditional GOP candidate. And his Pence pick was partially (or maybe mostly) inspired to get on that Koch brothers tit, and apparently that hasn't worked either. Of course he could win, but he's needed everything to go right from about the convention onward. A disastrous, embarrassing convention is a pretty dreadful start.