Quote:
Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan
The point I am trying to make is that it should not even be this close at any point during this election cycle. The fact that he is within 10 points is shocking.
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He'd almost certainly be within 10 points of any candidate the Dems put up, even Obama running again. You have to remember a 5 point win in popular vote usually translates to a landslide victory in the electoral college. Republicans are basically locked into between 42-45% of the vote no matter who the candidate is. Their problem is getting past the 47-48% level, and Trump has yet to show he'll be able to take them past it. Polling is always pretty close right around this time because there are months to go, so polls right now are a snapshot in time more than a predictor of the likely result.