[Senator Clay Davis]

Reminder that polling is irrelevant this far out. After the debates is pretty much the only window that really matters, and right now we still have 3 goddamn months to go before the debates. Narratives need to be upheld or what is the media going to talk about for months? What these polling numbers show is there's basically 1 in 5 people's votes who are still out there to be had, as Trump and Clinton's combined numbers are barely getting past 80% in most polls. So this election probably has more undecideds in play than normal. Third party support is likely to collapse as we get closer to the election as well as while there is I'm sure some real third party support, it's primarily based out of hatred of the two candidates. I'm guessing in the end most of those people hate one of the two more than the other, so they'll come back to supporting the one they hate the least. There's also the whole it's a lot easier to say you'll vote Trump than when you actually have to do it. We've all seen voter apprehension win out in many elections (like say Alberta 2012...).

And we also will see Trump's numbers fall next week after what appears will be the most embarrassing national convention in history. Trainwreck TV at it's finest.

A night highlighting the tragedy in Benghazi, Libya. An appearance by onetime football star Tim Tebow. A presentation detailing former President Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct.

Donald J. Trump, the presumptive nominee, has been promising a different kind of Republican National Convention, and plans obtained by The New York Times show that he is eager to put his showbiz stamp on the party’s gathering, even as he struggles to attract A-list talent.

The roster of speakers obtained by The Times, and confirmed by two people with direct knowledge of the convention planning, reveals a lineup lacking many of the party’s rising stars. Instead, it features some of Mr. Trump’s eclectic collection of friends, celebrities and relatives, from his Slovenian supermodel wife to professional golfer Natalie Gulbis.

The list, which is subject to change, as obtained by The New York Times:

Night 1: A Benghazi focus, followed by border patrol agents and Mr. Shaw, whose son was killed by an undocumented immigrant. Senator Cotton, Mr. Giuliani, Melania Trump, Ms. Ernst and others.

Night 2: A focus on the economy: Mr. White, president of the U.F.C.; Asa Hutchinson, the governor of Arkansas; Michael Mukasey, the former United States attorney general; Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a vice-presidential possibility; Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader; Tiffany Trump; Donald Trump Jr. and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

Night 3: Ms. Bondi; Ms. Collins; Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas; Eric Trump; Ms. Gulbis; and the nominee for vice president.

Night 4: Mr. Tebow; Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee; Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman; Gov. Rick Scott of Florida; Mr. Thiel; Mr. Barrack; Ivanka Trump; Donald J. Trump.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us....co/sl962TZKEv