Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef
Not all of us think Tkachuk is the most likely to be an NHL star though. He has 1 year in the CHL playing for a dominant team on what was likely the best line in the CHL. I'm not convinced Tkachuk is this future star powerforward or that his numbers are not inflated due to his linemates. I don't believe anyone outside Matthews is a lock to be a star from the most recent draft like.
Where as Gillies I have seen him grow into one of the most dominant NCAA goalies in recent years, I have seen his Hockey East counterpart in Hellebyuck already make a big splash for the Jets, the man he shared the crease with at the World Juniors, John Gibson made Freddie Andersen available in Anaheim and I watched him play very well in his first handful of pro games. I have no reason at this moment not to think Gillies will follow the paths of Gibson and Hellebyuck at this point in time and believe he will be a dominant NHL goaltender.
If Tkachuk goes back to the OHL and dominants, carries the Knights then maybe my views would change. But as it stands I am not convinced, but with Gillies I am convinced.
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I get where you're coming from, but I respectfully disagree. There are three major factors that make me hesitate to say Gillies is going to be a star:
1) Major hip surgery: He lost an entire season to hip surgery and recovery, and that area is 2nd only to knees for being a career destroyer for goalies. We have yet to see what post-surgery Gillies looks like against pro competition. Sounds like he's still experiencing pain and isn't quite 100%, so we'll have to wait and see what he looks like in training camp.
2) Just a handful of professional games: This is where we'll see what he can bring to the table. He looked good in a couple games last year, picking up shutouts, but he also looked like he was adjusting to the new league and higher level of competition in a couple games as well. A full season in the AHL will tell you how good Gillies is, and how close he is to playing in the NHL. That doesn't even get into the possibility of being a star player.
3) Goalies take longer to develop: There's no way to know for sure what Gillies will end up being in the future at this point. We think he's got the tools to be a starting goaltender in the NHL, but people have thought the same thing about Jacob Markstrom for years and years, and only now is he resembling the player they thought he might be. Still not a star though. However, Henrik Lundqvist, a 7th round pick that came out of nowhere, has been one of the top 3 goalies in the league for near a decade now. Who would have predicted that?
Compare that with high ranking forwards, who seem to smoothly transition into the NHL without much difficulty,
especially if they are big bodies with skill. Also, the peak age for forwards tends to be much younger than goalies...by nearly a decade. This makes a high skill, power winger like Tkachuk almost a sure bet to be a good NHL player, if not a star. Gillies has far more question marks at this point compared to Tkachuk. Sure, he won a championship and did very well in college, but he's still has almost no professional experience so far, and in that way is very much like Tkachuk (who also won a major championship).
I've been bullish on Gillies since we drafted him, and I think he'll make the NHL at some point, but I always hedge my bets with goalies because it's an incredibly hard position to figure out at times. Tkachuk is much more of a sure bet in my opinion.