Did he overplay his hand? Will only know the answer after what we see he signs for. If he gets more than the Toronto offer, he played it smart. If he ends up signing for less than $4.25m aav and less than 4 yr term, safe to say he did overplay his hand. However it could be he didn't want to play for the leafs which is why he didn't sign there. Could have a deal in principle with a team that needs to clear space as well.
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