From the Assistant Director of Scouting for the London Knights:
Jake Goldberg @Jake__Goldberg
#NHLDraftThoughts (1/10): Building models to predict "successful" NHLers can be very dangerous without a proper definition of "success"
(2/10) GP is not an indicator of "success". Showing up to work is not enough. It's what you produce in those GP that matters.
#WeCanDoBetter
(3/10) The draft is about value creation. Picking a player with bottom 6 F, 5-6 D and 2 G potential = value destruction.
#GettingCloser
(4/10) Smart teams will sign them as FAs at near league minimum AAV. No draft pick spent and no uncertainty if they will reach their ceiling
(5/10) Success can only be defined as a prospect who achieves above replacement value status. This is what we call an asset.
(6/10) Take a player with a 5% chance of becoming a top 6 F and a 95% chance of being a bust over one with 100% certainty of being a 4th liner
(7/10) top 6F, top 4D and starting G can't be signed on cheap AAV deals, that is, unless you draft them.
(8/10) But how do you find top 6F, top 4D and starting Gs outside of the first 2 rounds? There are tools to increase your odds of "success".
(9/10) 1st, make sure you have the right definition of "success" in your model. 2nd, find trends in late picks who become successful NHLers
(10/10) From 1990-2010, 50% of successful forwards picked after Rd 2 were re-entry players. No coincidence the Leafs took 5 of them in 2016.