Quote:
Originally Posted by JiriHrdina
^Odd rant.
They certainly picked some guys with size and jam to their game. But they didn't get tunnel vision on that element.
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Wasn't a rant. Believe it or not, things that don't agree with your worldview are not rants. It was a measured approach of admitting there is a lot of assessment that needs to be done to evaluate this draft. Just because the Flames drafted Tkachuk does not automatically make this a successful draft. There are lots of questions to be asked to determine if this is a good draft for the team. You know, will any of the players drafted slot in above those picked in previous drafts? What are the odds of the players selected making it to the NHL? How does the Flames draft stack up against the teams in the division and conference? Did the other teams have better or worse drafts and did they improve their systems more than the Flames did theirs?
Outside of Tkachuk who exactly did they pick with "jam" that has a serious chance of making the NHL? I'm trying to be somewhat pragmatic about this and look at the players objectively. I'm not going to let the hype of the draft get in the way of looking at what the Flames just drafted and the odds of them being a player. So after Tkachuk this is what we selected.
54th pick - Tyler Parsons (G) - N/A.
56th pick - Dillon Dube (C) 5'11, 182 - bellow average size.
66th pick - Adam Fox (D) 5'10, 185 - tiny defenseman.
96th pick - Linus Lindstrom (C) 6'0, 165 - needs 30-40 pounds.
126th pick - Mitchell Mattson (C) 6'4, 201 - nice size.
156th pick - Eetu Tuuola (RW) 6'3, 227 - better size.
166th pick - Matthew Phillips (C) 5'7, 161 - tiny forward.
186th pick - Stepan Falkovsky (D) 6'7, 225 - giant size!
Like it or not size does matter in the NHL. And like it or not, when you are selected does matter when it comes to making it to the NHL. The later you are selected the smaller the odds of you making it to the NHL are. According to an article by
Scott Cullen here are the odds of the latest picks making it to the NHL and playing 100 games, just based on historical success.
54th pick - 33% of playing 100 games.
56th pick - 29% of playing 100 games.
66th pick - 37.5% of playing 100 games.
96th pick - 24.5% of playing 100 games.
126th pick - 16% of playing 100 games.
156th pick - 15% of playing 100 games.
166th pick - 16% of playing 100 games.
186th pick - 10.3% of playing 100 games.
That is without taking into consideration the size of the player. I think we can agree that the odds of smaller players making it to the NHL are stacked against them. The Flames early picks were all on smaller players. The guys with NHL size are all later picks in rounds where they have a 16% chance, or less, of making it to the NHL and playing more than a season. Based on that you'll have to excuse my lack of excitement with this draft after the first round because of the way the size and success percentages stack up.
One of the things I like to look at is how the new picks stack up against our current prospects. Do they displace anyone on the depth chart, or do they filter in behind what we already have. In all honesty I still hold out hope for these guys, but I don't see anyone after Tkachuk that should be displacing anyone in the system at their positions. So I don't see this a huge success from that perspective.
When you consider organizational needs the team did achieve a couple goals. They grabbed a top end offensive talent. That is a big win. They also traded for a NHL starter. Another big win. So just from that end the Flames did well. Compared to their competition I think they did much better in this regard. They really checked off a couple big check boxes, so this is a big success. It would have been nice if they had as good a second day as they did a first day of the draft, but on the surface I think they did well.
As I said, still weighing this out and doing some comparison shopping. Not sure how good a draft this was. Day one was an A+. Day two? I'm not sure. It looks really below average to me. Still have to filter through each team and see how their draft stacked up as well, how it supported their philosophy, and if they got some good fit in the long run. Only then will a reasonable grade be assigned.