Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Not all shots are the same. A dump in on the goalie from centre has a low probability of going in while a rebound in the slot is a dangerous chance.
Confusing shots for scoring chances is one of the biggest flaws with corsi. It's very similar to plus-minus in usefulness which is to say not very useful.
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Corsi with respect to coaches is
not about offense. Corsi is about
defense. If you are controlling the shot attempts you are controlling the play, and keeping the puck off the stick of the opposition's star players.
Defense at the NHL level is a myth. Sure you can block a few shots if somebody like Wideman is just shooting them into shin pads. But as soon as that puck is on the stick of somebody like Kane or Crosby you're at the mercy of your goalie making a ten-bell save.
The only way to defend elite players is to play as much keep-away as is possible, 170 feet from the net. It's to not have your fourth line out there stuck in the defensive zone on an island against the other team's best five man unit because they failed to perform a basic clear.
That's what corsi "measures", and what it correlates to, and what Hartley and Carlyle and Kreuger fail to measure up. It's what a guy like Darryl Sutter preaches. The Kings are the best possession team, does that make them a dangerous offensive team? Not unless the players can score. But it does make them a stifling defensive team no matter who's in net, even with some pretty big sieves on the blue line like Schenn.
Corsi doesn't measure Scoring chances. Correct. It makes no claim it attempts to.
Corsi doesn't measure Goal Scoring. It makes no claim it attempts to.
Corsi doesn't measure pure puck-on-stick possession time. It makes no claim it attempts to nor is that an issue as this is a sport where the puck is rarely on anyone's stick for extended periods, and when it is there is often a giveaway soon after.
Corsi is a proxy for useful offensive zone time. It claims to be that and it correlates well to that. What the players do offensively still matters. What it addresses defensively, is consistent.