Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC
Perhaps power forwards are rarer because their development is less reliable? And therefore, drafting them riskier?
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Dangerous to generalize too much IMO. Are they more risky? And even if they are in general, the ones who go top 5-6 are still premiere prospects expected to have a low bust rate. I don't see Dubois or Tkachuk as risky picks. To me riskier picks would be Keller (size), Gauthier (play dropped off), guys like that.
I think powerforwards are rare because not everybody can be big, strong, and skilled and play a powerful style. Colborne on our team for example is big and somewhat strong but isn't naturally a physical player, he's more of a finesse forward at heart. He's gotten better at using his size but he isn't a powerforward.
So what % of prospects have excellent size/strength?
What % of those are skilled and can skate?
What % of those play a powerful or physical style?
You're not looking at a huge subset of big, strong, skilled, physical top end forwards. They are rare because they are a rare combination of attributes.
Heck it's rare to get size, strength, skating, skill, smarts, character and physicality at any position. Most players lack several of those ideal attributes. This draft features some kids at the top end who manage to tick most of those boxes.