Quote:
Originally Posted by Five-hole
Good post, but I think you have a logic problem in the last part. It may well be true that the best player after 3 is picked at 24. It may well be true that the best player after 3 is picked at 121. That doesn't mean you should trade 6th for 24th.
The general quality of player picked from 4-10 will be higher than those picked from 24-30, like it is every year. Your best chance to get the best player is at 6, not at 24.
Hindsight fallacy, I believe is the issue.
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I think you hav read that all wrong. I am saying that the if the scouts have come to the conclusion that the talent level of the players available between picks six and twenty are the same, and the best player on their list, the guy they think will be the best, is likely to be available later, they should trade down. Only they know this because they are the ones who have assessed the draft and determined the strength and then the order of the prospects. Everything in that process is predictive. I don't see where hindsight comes into play in that process?