Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
I don't disagree with your sentiment of being hesitant to trade down, but I would not base that decision on information from 20 years ago. I would leave that decision to the scouts and what their confidence level is on the particular draft and quality of player available. If the player available at 20 is projected to be just as good as the player at 6, I support the move trading down. This may be one of those drafts where the best player, outside of the top three, comes late in the first. I trust the current crop of scouts to make the correct decision.
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Good post, but I think you have a logic problem in the last part. It may well be true that the best player after 3 is picked at 24. It may well be true that the best player after 3 is picked at 121. That doesn't mean you should trade 6th for 24th.
The general quality of player picked from 4-10 will be higher than those picked from 24-30, like it is every year. Your best chance to get the best player is at 6, not at 24.
Hindsight fallacy, I believe is the issue.