Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
What I see happening in this next round of elections is that the Republicans, having once again successfully lowered expectations, will end up doing much better than expected. I'd expect them to hang on to the house and Senate pretty easily, in spite of predictions of a "perfect storm" sweeping the Dems into power. I just don't see it happening.
The Democrats (and the media to some extent) often make the mistake of thinking that voter behaviour works like this: a. I'm mad at Bush. b. The congress isn't very good. c. I'm voting for the other party.
In fact, disgruntled voters tend to either stay home or start splitting their ticket, kind of like you do. What that means is that there's no indication that dissatisfaction with Bush is going to mean a groundswell of support for the Democrats, who've so far utterly failed to gain any kind of traction for an alternative agenda. When Newt Gingrich was swept into power in 94, it was because he presented voters with a vision for change that was simple, made sense given the political climate and easy to sell. "I don't like X" doesn't motivate voters.
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I would also suggest that the Repubs loyal are far more loyal then the Dems loyal (and get a higher ratio of electoral votes in smaller states). Mr gay bashing, god fearing, rapture waiting conservative will always vote conservative even if he can't see (especially since he can't see) the hypocracy in it all. I think dem voters tend to swing back and forth more since they don't vote blindly by religion or other beliefs.
Repubs CRY OUT against gay rights in the election. Well looky looky. They cry out against child abuse and ask 'WHERE ARE THE VALUES?' Again they're no different. They just know the push points and the voting patterns.
And they fight dirty.
Don't even get me started about the war...
There is a division in American politics because the republicans have pushed it this far. To win. To make profit and earn jobs. Not for the country. Not for values. To win.
And lastly there is a division because of religious fanaticism. And if you think I mean just muslim, then you better wake up.
All in all the U.S. is losing moderation and free thought and it's becoming increasing polarised. And one side is playing that.
You are 100% right, this won't be as damaging as it could (should?) be. (Along with all the other stuff in the last 2 years) Not because the repubs are doing anything right though. Not that they are even keeping there own promises, helping the country, OR NOT OUTRIGHT LYING ABOUT THE MAJORITY OF THEIR POLICIES.
There is a significant number of people in the states blinded by religion and the 'partisan war'. It's only getting worse.