Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
But there is no consensus after the top 3. The consensus lists like Mackenzie and THN make it seem like there's consensus because they average a variety of opinions to get an averaged list. But the reality is that Nylander is not going to be top 6 for every team.
Will Nylander be the most purely skilled forward left if Tkachuk/Dubois go 4/5? Of that there is no doubt. But will he be the BPA on the Flames list? I think that's very debatable and we've gone over the arguments for/against many times. Here's a quick summary as far as I see it:
Why Nylander could be top 6 for the Flames:
-Most purely skilled forward after Tkachuk/Dubois
-Plays RW and is a right shot, both needs for the Flames
Why Nylander could not be top 6 for the Flames:
-Their organizational philosophy of defensemen>centres>wingers may mean that Nylander drops in relation to the other players he may be seen as tied as one could argue that Nylander is very close to Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev and Brown. So Nylander may drop below some or all of those on the Flames list because he plays the least valuable position in the NHL as a winger
-While he fits a RW need and right shot need he doesn't have the ideal size/strength and doesn't play that gritty, hard nosed style that we really lack. Some people think the Flames lack pure skill but I think we have a lot of pure skill with Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett and still have some skilled players in the system with Shinkaruk, Mangiapane, Jankowski and Poirier. Some people think the Flames lack that power forward the most and Nylander doesn't play that style.
I can see both arguments and therefore I don't think we can rule Nylander out as a potential pick at #6 for the Flames. But as I'm sure everyone knows I tend to favour the argument that at least 1-2 of the defensemen may be seen as a more valuable prospect in the long run by the Flames.
So yes, Nylander may end up as a 70-80 point finesse winger. But if we turn that down for a guy who has "potential to develop into a dominant two-way defender who could challenge for multiple Norris trophies" in Chychrun, or a 6'6 Mats Sundin in Brown, or a guy who has "potential to be a perennial NHL all star" in Sergachev should we be disappointed? How could we be?
I'm always surprised when I see people disappointed in this draft class when our consolation prize could be one of those above. I wouldn't be disappointed with a 70-80 point finesse winger (Nylander), a 6'2 25 min a night top pairing dman (Chychrun, Sergachev or maybe even Juolevi), or a beastly 6'6 top two line centre (Brown) at #6. Sure Tkachuk/Dubois fit our immediate needs better and would likely be closer to the NHL but its not like there's a huge drop off after #5. I think Ashashx said #6 is the most disappointing position in the draft and New Era seems very Debbie Downer on the upside of the second tier but I see it very differently. I like the players in the 4-10 range a lot. I'd be happy with most of them.
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For the most part the consensus 4-6 players in the draft are the forwards I listed in differing orders (ISS has Nylander ahead of both Dubios and Tkachuk). Look I get that you would prefer one of these defenseman over Nylander and that's fine and all but you have yet to convince me that any of these defensemen will fill the Flames organizational needs better than Nylander. Gaudreau, Monahan, and Bennett need help on RW badly and I don't see any value in signing a guy like Okposo to fill that void at $5 million/season when you can draft a more talented young kid that will be on an entry level deal for years. Also I'm not of the opinion that the team needs to get bigger or harder to play against. They simply need to play better defense, get better goaltending, and continue to bolster their top 6 forward depth.