Quote:
Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan
These midterm elections are interesting.
It is no secret that I tend to vote Republican, but I do not vote straight down the party line. I voted for our current Governor, Kathleen Sebelius (D) and I will vote for her again next month because she's done a great job and because her opponent is an evangelical. I voted against our 'bad' R Senator, Sam Brownback in the last election because he is too far to the right. Conversely, I would vote for Pat Roberts, the other Republican Senator because of the way he has handled himself and represented the state of Kansas as a high ranking Senator. Same goes for my Congressman, Republican Todd Tiahrt.
I'm a native Montanan, and I follow the politics of that state as closely as I can. I am sincerely hoping that Jon Tester unseats the corrupt Conrad Burns. Tester is a Democrat, but he is also good for Montana...which is why any of these folks should get a vote in the first place.
That Montana Senate seat is one of the races that is in the national spotlight. It's kind of neat to watch.
|
A ticket-splitter, eh? Traitor!
I obviously don't get to vote in elections down here, but being a political junkie since time immemorial, I follow them with the kind of obsessiveness that most people reserve for pro sports (what does that tell you about our priorities, right?)
What I see happening in this next round of elections is that the Republicans, having once again successfully lowered expectations, will end up doing much better than expected. I'd expect them to hang on to the house and Senate pretty easily, in spite of predictions of a "perfect storm" sweeping the Dems into power. I just don't see it happening.
The Democrats (and the media to some extent) often make the mistake of thinking that voter behaviour works like this: a. I'm mad at Bush. b. The congress isn't very good. c. I'm voting for the other party.
In fact, disgruntled voters tend to either stay home or start splitting their ticket, kind of like you do. What that means is that there's no indication that dissatisfaction with Bush is going to mean a groundswell of support for the Democrats, who've so far utterly failed to gain any kind of traction for an alternative agenda. When Newt Gingrich was swept into power in 94, it was because he presented voters with a vision for change that was simple, made sense given the political climate and easy to sell. "I don't like X" doesn't motivate voters.
Foley's seat may well fall to the Democrats. But I doubt they'll gain traction from this issue. In the end, they're infuriatingly bad at politics--and that's a bad thing. People may say they like sincerity and earnestness, but in the real world that's a sure-fire way of getting your ass handed to you.