Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Scenario: If YOU had to a pick a dman at 6 which one?

GranteedEV · 05-17-2016, 11:52 AM

I always find peoples' assessments about defenseman "upside" amusing when draft position is brought into the mix. "X was picked 2nd round, Y will be a top 10 pick, Y therefore has more upside".

It's true that defensemen picked earlier are going to be closer to contributing soon than defensemen picked later.

But I see almost no correlation between draft position and upside. Erik Karlsson was drafted after Luke Schenn, Tyler Myers, and Zach Bogosian. We thought Bouwmeester (#3OA) / Phaneuf (#9OA) would be part of the best D-core in the league but it was Giordano (Undrafted) and Brodie (#114OA) who finally solved our Blue Line.

It's true that the sooner-drafted players won the race but they didn't win the marathon.

I feel the same way about Olli Maatta. Okay, so he got to the NHL quickly. Does that mean he had better upside than Shayne Gostisbehere or Colton Parayko? Even having all the tools means little, I think a few years from now Edmonton will be thinking "I wish we had Madison Bowey or Shea Theodore instead of Darnell Nurse".

So yeah, Rasmus Andersson can have more upside than Jacob Chychrun or Olli Juolevi because projecting 17/18 year old defensemen is a game of roulette. Scouts' opinions don't mean much because they've proven just about every single year that they failed to identify the guy with the most #1 potential, aside from no-brainers like Ekblad. Doughty and Hedman. That's even true of teams' own internal scouting.

Keith or Seabrook? Seabrook was picked higher.
Subban or McDonagh? McDonagh was picked higher.
Karlsson or Ceci? They were picked in the exact same spot.
Josi or Ellis? Ellis was picked higher.
Suter or Weber? Suter was picked higher.
Erixon or Brodie? Lol.

etc. Draft position for defensemen is a decent-ish indicator of NHL-readiness. It's a poor indicator of upside other than top 3 picked phenoms. You need clairvoyance to assess upside of defensemen.

If we take a Dman at #6, don't go wild expecting crazy upside. Expect a guy who can contribute sooner than later, and may just plateau.

05-17-2016, 11:52 AM	#25
GranteedEV Franchise Player Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Calgary Exp:	I always find peoples' assessments about defenseman "upside" amusing when draft position is brought into the mix. "X was picked 2nd round, Y will be a top 10 pick, Y therefore has more upside". It's true that defensemen picked earlier are going to be closer to contributing soon than defensemen picked later. But I see almost no correlation between draft position and upside. Erik Karlsson was drafted after Luke Schenn, Tyler Myers, and Zach Bogosian. We thought Bouwmeester (#3OA) / Phaneuf (#9OA) would be part of the best D-core in the league but it was Giordano (Undrafted) and Brodie (#114OA) who finally solved our Blue Line. It's true that the sooner-drafted players won the race but they didn't win the marathon. I feel the same way about Olli Maatta. Okay, so he got to the NHL quickly. Does that mean he had better upside than Shayne Gostisbehere or Colton Parayko? Even having all the tools means little, I think a few years from now Edmonton will be thinking "I wish we had Madison Bowey or Shea Theodore instead of Darnell Nurse". So yeah, Rasmus Andersson can have more upside than Jacob Chychrun or Olli Juolevi because projecting 17/18 year old defensemen is a game of roulette. Scouts' opinions don't mean much because they've proven just about every single year that they failed to identify the guy with the most #1 potential, aside from no-brainers like Ekblad. Doughty and Hedman. That's even true of teams' own internal scouting. Keith or Seabrook? Seabrook was picked higher. Subban or McDonagh? McDonagh was picked higher. Karlsson or Ceci? They were picked in the exact same spot. Josi or Ellis? Ellis was picked higher. Suter or Weber? Suter was picked higher. Erixon or Brodie? Lol. etc. Draft position for defensemen is a decent-ish indicator of NHL-readiness. It's a poor indicator of upside other than top 3 picked phenoms. You need clairvoyance to assess upside of defensemen. If we take a Dman at #6, don't go wild expecting crazy upside. Expect a guy who can contribute sooner than later, and may just plateau. __________________ "May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory." Last edited by GranteedEV; 05-17-2016 at 12:41 PM.