Personally, I have almost no faith that things will turn out well the Flames.
Edmonton is in a tough situations. If they take one of Dubois or Tkachuk, people in their fanbase will be upset as it doesn't help the defense situation. If they take Chychrun or the other D, their fanbase will be upset for not maximizing the value of the pick. It seems quite likely that the pick will be traded. And if the pick is traded, the new team will pick one of Dubois or Tkachuk. My worst fear is that the Oilers trade that pick as part of the package for Barrie. If so, poor Iginla/Avalanche fans.
In my opinion:
-Chance that Edmonton trades the pick, and the new team picks one of Dubois or Tkachuk: 40%
-Chance the Oilers pick Chychrun: 30%
-Chance the Oilers pick Tkachuk:15%
-Chance the Oilers pick Dubois: 15%
And I know there are reports that the Canucks will take one of the defensemen if they feel on of them can be a top guy. But I'm skeptical. Dubois/Tkachuk are the best players at that spot, and I doubt the Canucks are incompetent enough to pick off the board.
In my pessimistic opinion:
-Chance the Canucks pick Dubois if available: 50%
-Chance the Canucks pick Tkachuk if available: 30%
-Chance the Canucks pick someone else: 20%
With the way things have gone for the Flames this year, I would be shocked if one of Dubois or Tkachuk fell to us at 6. We'll probably take one of Nylander, Keller, Brown, Chychrun, Juolevi, or Sergachev, and we'll have to live with it. There's a strong chance the some of the players taken 7th to 12th will be better than whoever we pick at 6th. It's just that close. But hindsight will be 20/20.
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