Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
It would probably be better to look at a range like 10-20 within the past 15 years or so as drafts can vary from year to year.
Personally, I think adding the two 2nd rounders negates the risk for the Bruins. Out of those 3 picks, there is a really good chance that at least one pans out. Until those picks show fruition, I think the trade is a win for Treliving because less risk like you said, but not the home run most others do.
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If you go 10 - 20 for sure it's closer to 60% but that's not a 60% chance of turning into a top 2-3 defender, that's playing 100 games.
For the 2nd round picks its 33% so two of them you get 66% and once again that's for playing 100 games.
I think a study into how many times it's made sense to trade a given for two 2/3 chances at a guy that plays a season would be very very low, hence the theft on Treliving's part.
Having said that, he basically paid the going rate of a RFA walking so the steal is more in getting it done without competing and leaving other GMs with their mouths agape.
Why the Bruins didn't just go into summer and see what happened is beyond me.