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Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz
Except it's all based on probability, that's what I'm saying. It's not stated as a probability, but it certainly implies one, especially since the entire equation is based on a the probabilities of various outcomes.
I know what the table says, but what it actually means a little different.
That 0.014 means that based on the inputs and the number of stars in our galaxy, that the low end implies that only 1 in 71 galaxies our size should have a civilization. The fact that we are here doesn't mean that the the numbers are wrong, means that the bookends are that we are one of 140,000 civilizations in our galaxy, or our galaxy was the 1/71 where a civilization popped up.
These bounds are that on the low end there will be 1 civilization for every 7.1 trillion stars, or 140,000 for every 100 billion.
They've arbitrarily picked a region of space and applied probabilities to it to come up with the 0.014-140,000 boundaries.
The fact that we are here doesn't change the fact that it's possible that on the low end we are the only civilization in the nearest 71 galaxies.
Sure those numbers could be wrong, but we can't be sure of that based on the fact that we are here.
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Yo must be a teacher's worst nightmare. "I know what the words say, but what they are implying is different!" Yes, we all get it. We know how probability works.
They also didn't arbitrarily pick, they very clearly, without ambiguity say "total number of civilizations in the Milky Way right now = 0.014" as the low probability. Not a galaxy similar to the Milky Way, not 1 billion years ago. Right now.
Obviously the chart is wrong, in that the number should be 1, or the text should say "a Galaxy similar to the Milky Way" or probably most accurately, "probability of a technologically advanced civilization in a Galaxy similar to the Milky Way existing right now". But it doesn't, so I'm right.
