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Old 05-11-2016, 04:31 PM   #2707
Bring_Back_Shantz
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Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube View Post
But the 0.014 is not the 'probability of civilizations being in the milky way galaxy', it's the 'total number of civilizations in the milky way galaxy'. It is factually (at least) 1 -- so the pessimistic numbers must be incorrect.
Except it's all based on probability, that's what I'm saying. It's not stated as a probability, but it certainly implies one, especially since the entire equation is based on a the probabilities of various outcomes.
I know what the table says, but what it actually means a little different.

That 0.014 means that based on the inputs and the number of stars in our galaxy, that the low end implies that only 1 in 71 galaxies our size should have a civilization. The fact that we are here doesn't mean that the the numbers are wrong, means that the bookends are that we are one of 140,000 civilizations in our galaxy, or our galaxy was the 1/71 where a civilization popped up.

These bounds are that on the low end there will be 1 civilization for every 7.1 trillion stars, or 140,000 for every 100 billion.


They've arbitrarily picked a region of space of ~100 billion stars and applied probabilities to it to come up with the 0.014-140,000 boundaries.

The fact that we are here doesn't change the fact that it's possible that on the low end we are the only civilization in the nearest 71 galaxies.
Sure those numbers could be wrong, but we can't be sure of that based on the fact that we are here.

To look at it another way, you said that the low end must be wrong, which is really implying that the inputs are wrong. That is similar to telling someone who has won the lottery that their chance was 100% because they won it. The fact that an event happened doesn't change the probability that it WAS GOING to happen.

Hell even if the low end of those numbers is correct it's possible that there are a ton of civilizations in the Milky Way, or if the high numbers are correct that we are still the only ones around because sometimes unlikely things happen, especially in something the size of the universe.
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Last edited by Bring_Back_Shantz; 05-11-2016 at 04:45 PM.
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