Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz
No, the pessimistic value for the universe must be 1. We know of exactly 1 civilization in the whole universe, so picking an arbitrary part of it (our galaxy), and saying that the chance of us being there is the same as us being in the universe is the same is wrong.
What you're suggesting is no different than saying the chance of a civilization around any star is 1 because we are around this star.
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Except the last line says "in the Milky Way", not some arbitrary part of the Universe. If they said "total number in some random galaxy in the Universe, I'd agree with you.