[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Uh, that last line... Pessimistic Value must be at least 1. Unless you are so pessimistic as to not count us as civilized.

No, the pessimistic value for the universe must be 1. We know of exactly 1 civilization in the whole universe, so picking an arbitrary part of it (our galaxy), and saying that the chance of us being there is the same as us being in the universe is the same is wrong.

What you're suggesting is no different than saying the chance of a civilization around any star is 1 because we are around this star.