Well everyone, here's probably the 2nd most intriguing day of the off-season, right after the actual draft itself. I'm sure we all want a good outcome, but let's not Oiler up the place if it happens by over-celebrating. I'll be happy with any of the top 3 slots. I'll be satisfied with 6th since the odds show us taking that slot at a high ratio. I'll be somewhat disappointed with a 7th or 8th slot, but I won't cry over it. I'll be actually stunned if we grab the 5th slot since it hasn't happened once in any simulation that Bingo has run, nor in any of my simulations.
Here's the odds of picking 1st overall:
Toronto Maple Leafs: 20%
Edmonton Oilers: 13.5%
Vancouver Canucks: 11.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets: 9.5%
Calgary Flames: 8.5%
Winnipeg Jets: 7.5%
Arizona Coyotes: 6.5%
Buffalo Sabres: 6%
Montreal Canadiens: 5%
Colorado Avalanche: 3.5%
New Jersey Devils: 3%
Ottawa Senators: 2.5%
Carolina Hurricanes: 2%
Boston Bruins: 1%
Once that first pick is made, it's a smorgasbord of different possibilities, but sufficed to say that the higher your chances at the 1st overall pick, the higher your subsequent chances are at a top 3 pick.
Here's the likelihood for the Flames today:
1st: 8.5%
2nd: 8.8%
3rd: 9%
4th: N/A
5th: 9.1%
6th: 35.5%
7th: 25.5%
8th: 3.7%
9th:
Significant chance
Just for info, here's the odds for the bottom 3 teams.
30th: Maple Leafs
1st: 20%
2nd: 17.5%
3rd: 15%
4th: 47.5%
29th: Oilers
1st: 13.5%
2nd: 13.1%
3rd: 12.5%
4th: 35.2%
5th: 25.8%
28th: Canucks
1st: 11.5%
2nd: 11.3%
3rd: 11.2%
4th: 14.2%
5th: 37.8%
6th: 13.8%
Here's a link to a site that does sample simulations if you want to try it out for yourself:
http://nhllotterysimulator.com
Here's a link to Bingo's most recent blog on this topic if you want to see some further commentary. You can see his 18 iterations with poll rankings from the site at the bottom.
http://www.calgarypuck.com/2016/04/l...ix-april-29th/
Oh yeah, and one last thing...
Go Flames Go!!!!!!