Quote:
Originally Posted by driveway
There are 622 delegates left up for grabs and Trump needs 287 of them which is 46%.
Upcoming contests for the R's are Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, and then on June 7: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota.
A lot of this is tough territory for Trump and he's not had a good record of breaking that 46% threshold. Outside the North East, he's only done it twice: Arizona (47.1%) and Mississippi (47.3%). Now the race is at a different stage, there are fewer candidates, and Trump does have the 'prospective nominee' shine on him, and he did just wallop in the North East ... but it's far from guaranteed that he's ending up with 1237 before the convention.
I really hope he doesn't, purely for entertainment purposes.
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Believe me I hope we get a contested convention too, but I think the nail in that coffin was the Cruz/Kasich alliance this week. It just makes the GOP look so desperate and pathetic, to announce it publicly rather than simply agreeing to it behind the scenes is what makes it even worse. I think Trump now sees enough support rally to him that even if it misses 1237, he'll get to at least 1200 and at that point denying him is guaranteeing a November loss and violence at the convention. Especially, since as I keep harping on, ####### extraordinaire Ted Cruz is the alternative.