Quote:
Originally Posted by driveway
There are 622 delegates left up for grabs and Trump needs 287 of them which is 46%.
Upcoming contests for the R's are Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, and then on June 7: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota.
A lot of this is tough territory for Trump and he's not had a good record of breaking that 46% threshold. Outside the North East, he's only done it twice: Arizona (47.1%) and Mississippi (47.3%). Now the race is at a different stage, there are fewer candidates, and Trump does have the 'prospective nominee' shine on him, and he did just wallop in the North East ... but it's far from guaranteed that he's ending up with 1237 before the convention.
I really hope he doesn't, purely for entertainment purposes.
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His record is getting better lately and politics are all about momentum. he actually only needs 249 after the count tonight, If he wins Indiana next week(he's leading in every poll) and picks off even 35 of the 57 delegates it's probably over as he will certainly win big in Jersey(51 delegates),West Virginia(34 delegates) and the huge 172 delegates in California.
something like this:
35 + 45 + 30 + 120 = 230
Fairly certain he could pick off 20 more delegates in the remaining 7 states.
Maybe he'll say something totally stupid again and derail himself but the math looks like he wins with ease before Ohio.