Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
I expected some griping about draft position in the PGT, but wow. The odds that the difference between 4th and 6th matters is 5.5%. The odds that the difference between 4th and 5th matters is 2.7%. Otherwise we're talking 1-2 spots in the draft. It's not like there was a significant tier we just dropped out of.
Also, some perspective would be nice. Our ranking was decided by 82 games. Not 1 game.
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Okay personal pet peeve here but your summary that there is a 5.5% difference between 4th last and 6th is misleading and incorrect. That's only the difference for picking #1. The other outcomes are more likely and thus more important. Let me go over it once last time.
Chance of picking top 3:
4th: 29%
6th: 23.5%
Chance of picking top 5:
4th: 59.4%
6th: 23.5%
HUGE difference. 36% difference, not 5.5% difference.
Chance of picking top 6:
4th: 92.6%
6th: 41%
HUGE difference again. 51.6% difference there, nowhere near 5.5% difference.
People wanted 4th over 6th last not just for the extra small chance at #1, or even the small extra chance at a top 3 but the massively higher chance at a top 5-6 pick. Luckily since this draft doesn't drop off huge after 5 or 6 we should still get a top prospect. In another year the difference of two spots could mean a franchise player vs a 2nd liner. But this year we're guaranteed a great prospect.