It's all about who is the hottest going into the post-season.
The Dodgers, Padres, and Phillies have all been winning. Its looking like the Padres and Dodgers will be the 2 teams from that group to make it in. Then you have the Astros and Cards fighting for the other spot. The only way the Mets make it past the 1st round is if they happen to luck out and face the Cards.
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