Quote:
Originally Posted by MattyC
Here's my question about this mindset, how little of a difference in percentages of the lottery will get you to not be conflicted? As it stands, the chances of winning the lottery really don't change a whole lot. Even if you are the very worst team, there's only a 20% of getting that spot. Yeah it's better than everyone else, but it still leaves an 80% chance of not. So what is the percentages that will get someone such as yourself to not cheer for losses? To me, those percentages are not different enough for me to care about them moving from 6th to 3rd for example.
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Good question. I'm not sure. I think what they did helps the issue, certainly finishing lower isn't as important as it was previously. That said when I look at the spread of the odds finishing 3rd and 6th last currently you'd still much, much rather finish lower.
http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
I think the change that would make me not care as much is if all 14 spots were decided by lottery. You can fall 3 spots right now and this is key. Right now 30th place is guaranteed a top 4 pick. Right now 29th place is guaranteed a top 5 pick. 28th is guaranteed a top 6 pick. It's those guarantees that are so valuable. Especially if a draft really dropped off after the top 4 or 5 players. Lucky for us this year it doesn't drop off right away. If you could fall any amount of spots and the odds were flatter then I wouldn't really care. But that system might not be seen as fair.