Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
There are a few inaccuracies in this post.
The odds of drafting top 3 if they Flames finish:
4th: 29%
5th: 26.3%
6th: 23.5%
Roughly the same? I dunno.
Finishing 6th we'd have a 58.9% chance of drafting outside the top 6.
Finishing 5th we'd have a 29.2% chance of drafting outside the top 6.
Finishing 4th we'd have a 7.4% chance of drafting outside the top 6.
Saying we're less likely to move down is kind of sugar coating it because sure we're less likely to move down, but our expected draft position is still much worse overall.
Anyways it is what it is, big blow to the draft odds. Let's not try and exaggerate and pretend it didn't change the odds at all or that it's somehow better, because that is misleading.
|
5.5% is roughly the same. In each case 7 to 7.5/10 times the team won't get picked. Would I have preferred being in 3rd or 4th, sure. That didn't happen. I would much rather have thumped the Canucks with a 7 goal performance than winning 2-1 though. What I was saying by there isn't as much of a chance to fall back is that it is more unlikely that a 7-14 place team wins a spot than either 5 or 6. So if we're sixth, we're less likely to slide than if we were in either 4th or 5th (even though we'd be in 5th and 6th respectively in those cases)
We'll be fine either way. Either we get a really good defenseman, a high scoring winger or a quality center. I would be happy if we got any of the second group, and thankfully there are more names on that list than there are spots to fall down. My second group of three is Dubois/Chychrun/Sergachev and we're very likely going to get one of them regardless. Can't complain too much. At least it's not 2014 where there are four good guys, then a gap and then a bunch of questionables. All the top 9 are good.