Quote:
Originally Posted by Caged Great
The odds of getting one of the top 3 picks is roughly the same if they finish 4th 5th or 6th (each is bloody unlikely)
At least if the Flames finish sixth, we're unlikely to slide back, where it would be a greater concern if we finished fourth or fifth.
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There are a few inaccuracies in this post.
The odds of drafting top 3 if they Flames finish:
4th: 29%
5th: 26.3%
6th: 23.5%
Roughly the same? I dunno.
Finishing 6th we'd have a 58.9% chance of drafting outside the top 6.
Finishing 5th we'd have a 29.2% chance of drafting outside the top 6.
Finishing 4th we'd have a 7.4% chance of drafting outside the top 6.
Saying we're less likely to move down is kind of sugar coating it because sure we're less likely to move down, but our expected draft position is still much worse overall.
Anyways it is what it is, big blow to the draft odds. Let's not try and exaggerate and pretend it didn't change the odds at all or that it's somehow better, because that is misleading.