Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Depends on the difference we're talking about. Check out
http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
Now compare 3rd last to 5th last.
-3rd has a 86.2% chance of drafting top 5
-5th has a 64.7% chance of NOT drafting top 5
Huge difference in expected outcomes for just 2 spots
Now compare 4th last to 6th last
-4th has a 92.6% chance of drafting top 6
-6th has a 58.9% chance of NOT drafting top 6
Huge difference in expected outcomes for just 2 spots
The Flames can finish anywhere between 3rd last and 6th last. Some people are downplaying how much your odds change of drafting top 5-6 if we lose the next two games vs not. It's a big difference |
I agree that the difference is certainly significant, and by the way excellent posts in this thread. I just wanted to point out that the lottery tempers the inequality that was posted somewhat. I actually wasn't sure to what degree, but you nicely covered that.