So since most people have already started thinking about the off-season in anticipation of next year, I figured we should have a discussion about something pretty straightforward. Which of our impending RFAs gets qualified and which ones do we let go? Here's the list in order of current salary:
Joe Colborne: $1.275 M.
Josh Jooris: $975 K.
Johnny Gaudreau: $925 K. (That has to be the best bang for your buck in the NHL right now
)
Sean Monahan: $925 K.
Tyler Wotherspoon: $925 K.
Bryce Van Brabant: $874 K.
Drew Shore: $850 K.
Bill Arnold: $824 K.
Kenny Agostino: $735 K.
Freddie Hamilton: $687.5 K.
Kevin Poulin: $650 K.
Turner Elson: $605 K.
Joni Ortio: $600 K.
Bear in mind we currently have 30 pro contracts for next year. There are 13 RFAs listed here, and there will be two more contracts with Jankowski and Mangiapane, plus 3 junior players who are likely to make the jump to the AHL or other pro league next season (Andersson, McDonald, Pollock), with Nick Schneider probably going back to junior for one more year. That means if we re-sign all the RFAs we will have 48 contracts on the books. Consider that we will likely sign our 1st round pick to a contract right away and all of a sudden we're at 49 contracts...not even including whatever goalie we find to be the starter for next season. So, basically, that's 50 if we sign everyone.
UFA's aren't even being considered here, so that means Nakladal and Grant won't be re-signed if we keep all our RFAs and don't trade any contracts away. Clearly, some room needs to be made, so who do we cut ties with?
My first thought is that guys like Van Brabant and Elson are done with this organization. I don't see much NHL potential in either, even though they do seem to be solid minor league guys. I just can't justify offering them a contract, but maybe an AHL only deal could be done.
I think we retain Ortio to be the backup on the NHL club next year, and with Gillies getting healthy along with McDonald likely making the jump to the AHL, that leaves Kevin Poulin on the outside. He isn't a bad minor league goalie, but probably not in this team's long term plans with 3 other prospects that will need net time, so we say buh-bye.
I'd like to have 2 more spots available, so we have to make a couple of tough choices. I think we say goodbye to Drew Shore who is 25 and hasn't shown that he can stick in the NHL despite attributes that say he should. As well, I think we drop one more of Freddie Hamilton or Kenny Agostino as both are older prospects that are maybe borderline NHLers, but likely not much more. However, Hamilton is not waiver-exempt, but Agostino still is, so I think it's clear that we keep Agostino over Hamilton.
As for the UFAs, I think Grant is let go since his 2 recalls have illustrated that he doesn't have the tools to be a good NHLer, while being an above average AHLer. Nakladal has shown he belongs, so I think they find a spot for him for at least a couple of years.
So in the end we say goodbye to Shore, Hamilton, Grant, Van Brabant, Elson, and Poulin. Perhaps if we buy out Raymond or trade Wideman we can keep 1 or 2 more guys, but I find that unlikely.
Obviously we retain Gaudreau, Monahan, Colborne, and likely Jooris. Wotherspoon, Ortio, Agostino, and Arnold can all be debated, but they're likely retained for at least one more contract. Here's what this looks like then for the rosters next year.
NHL Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-?
Colborne-Backlund-Frolik
Bouma-Bennett-Ferland
Bollig-Stajan-Jooris
Extra forwards: ?
Brodie-Giordano
Jokipakka-Hamilton
Engelland-Wideman
Nakladal
LTIR-Smid
Buyout-Raymond
?
Ortio
AHL Heat
Shinkaruk-Jankowski-Poirier
Agostino-Arnold-Mangiapane
Klimchuk-Pollock-Hathaway
Carroll-?-Smith
Wotherspoon-Kylington
Kulak-Andersson
Culkin-Sieloff
Morrison-Kanzig
Gillies-McDonald
Obviously, things could change, but this is how I see it shaking out next year. Perhaps we retain someone like Grant, Shore, or Hamilton to help out on the farm team.
BTW, if I made any false assumptions or omitted anything, please let me know. I'm far from a CBA/contract expert.