Quote:
Originally Posted by accord1999
So 60 years to increase 3.3x is something like a 2% increase in efficiency per year, hardly a revolution. And there are no widely available solar panels at 23.5% efficiency. And the real breakthrough for cheaper production appears to be Chinese manufacturing.
And those next gen solar cells may never find a market outside of military and space applications because they're far to expensive to make vs cheap silicon.
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Again, you're wrong. I just had solar cells installed on my house with a guarantee of revenue from the vendor for electricity I sell back to the grid, based on that exact efficiency number.
I also like how you twisted the numbers. Why don't you talk about improvements in the combustion engine while we're at it? I mean, we've only seen a 3 mph increase in efficiency in 80 years (gizmag)! There's some fancy numbers there, but true. The Model T averaged 25 mph while cafe standards are 28 mpg. Pretty stunning numbers when you look at it that way, rather than acknowledging the incredible innovation that has happened to improve gas milage. Funny how numbers can be twisted to support an argument, isn't it?
The point was that there wasn't much development in the science of solar cells from the 50s to the 2010s, but once it became an important market the innovation started happening quickly. A huge development in efficiency and reduction in cost in just three years. That is why solar power companies are popping up all over the place. There is money being made in that big ball of fire in the sky.
I must say, you are pretty certain about the viability of future solar cells. You sound almost as convincing as Thomas Watson from IBM when he was reported to have stated "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." I would never discount the ability to mass produce something in a cost effective way, especially something that will generate power. New cells and technologies will continue to come to the market because there is a need and a demand. Bet your mortgage money on it.