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Old 04-01-2016, 12:54 AM   #45
driveway
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Ramo and Ortio have given us not just solid but great goaltending since Nov 13th (Ramo's amazing game in Washington)

Despite that the two goalies are a combined 19-19-4 since then.

19-19-4 is an 82 point pace. That puts us where, 10th in the conference instead of 11th?
That's demonstrably untrue. Great goaltending starts at around a .930 5v5 save percentage. Ortio's about .928 since February 23rd, Ramo is lower than that.

And yes, decent goaltending gets us to the bubble of the playoffs. I don't think anyone is suggesting that if we had Lundkvist we'd be competing with Washington for 1st in the league. The team is still a rebuilding work-in-progress. Most of our key players are 25 or younger. Our top two scorers are 22 and 21. We're three-years removed from a complete tear-down and in that time our highest draft pick was 4th.

Goaltending is far from the only issue with this team. We give up too many quality chances; we're not particularly big; nor do we play a particularly tough style of hockey. There are totally legitimate criticisms which can be made of team defense, our possession metrics, our reliance on the break-out-pass, our lack of ability to carry the puck into the offensive zone.

Those are the things which, if improved, would turn a bubble team into a contending team. Last year we were a bubble-team who overachieved, this year we're a bubble team underachieving.

I believe the two primary culprits of our underachievement this year are our poor October and our goaltending (and I think our goaltending had a lot to do with our bad October). I think both the eye test and statistics bear this out. Again, I think around 80 points is where this team's true quality is, and + or - 10 points can be chalked up to the vagaries of the season. -10 points: right where we are as a result of a bad start, poor goaltending, bad special teams, and poor team defense (in that order, IMO).

Had things broken the other way, I think 90 points would have been attainable, again putting us back in the playoffs, at the top of the bubble.
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