Just some back of the napkin math:
Burn a year... Gets $92,500 signing bonus today, plus about $50,000 for the rest of the season. Gets another $92,500 on July 1. Will get paid $70,000 in the AHL and $832,500 (plus bonuses) in the NHL next season. Will become an RFA (with no arbitration or offer sheet rights) on July 1, 2017 for a qualifying offer of $874,125 in the NHL and $70,000 in the AHL -- which is most-likely what his second contract will be.
Don't burn a year, ask for maximum bonuses on the second year of the ELC (2017-18)... Gets $92,500 signing bonus on July 1. Will get paid $70,000 in the AHL and $832,500 (plus bonuses) in the NHL next season. Another $92,500 signing bonus on July 1, 2017. Will get paid $70,000 in the AHL and $832,500 (plus bonuses) in the NHL in 2017-18. Will become an RFA (with full arbitration and offer sheet rights) on July 1, 2018.
Most people expect him to need at least some time in the AHL, probably the full season, so the NHL money for next season isn't much of an issue.
If he expects 2017-18 to be his breakout year, it would make sense to want to have the options to have bonuses available for that season, which he wouldn't have if he burns this year.
So, let's say he plays most of next season in the AHL, gets called up late in the season and plays 20 games in the NHL next season (spending about 25% of the season in Calgary). For 2017-18, he makes the Flames out of camp and stays in the NHL all season (and hits one of the bonus milestones, such as top-3 team forward for +/-)...
Burn a year:
- 2015-16: $92,500 signing bonus + $50,000 NHL salary for remainder of season
- 2016-17: $92,500 signing bonus + $52,500 (75% of AHL salary) + $208,125 (25% of NHL salary)
- 2017-18: $874,125 NHL salary (not on ELC, so no bonuses)
TOTAL: $1,369,750
Don't burn a year:
- 2015-16: AHL PTO (I think they get a per diem, but no salary)
- 2016-17: $92,500 signing bonus + $52,500 (75% of AHL salary) + $208,125 (25% of NHL salary)
- 2017-18: $92,500 signing bonus + $832,500 (NHL salary) + $212,500 (one "A" level performance bonus)
TOTAL: $1,490,625
TOTAL WITHOUT BONUS: $1,278,125
So, he'd make more guaranteed money by burning a year, but can potentially make more if he gets full bonuses in the second year and hits at least one of them.