Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameOn
While he is definitely still facing an uphill battle. Notion that Clinton wins with Democrats entirely may not hold true anymore. Newest Bloomberg poll found Clinton is now behind Sanders in the national polls 49 to 48 among Democrats. The only demographic she still clearly wins is white rich women over 65.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/ar...-poll-im63yb0w |
There were three other national polls that came out last week showing her up double digits, so the Bloomberg one could be the outlier. Problem is he still hasn't shown that he's changed anything with demographics, and we won't find that out until the NE states vote again. But that's where his major problem lies ahead after he's finished routing caucuses. Ultimately the problem is he never changed the equation to winning, if anything her advantage among minorities and women has increased. He can dominate caucuses in smaller states, she wins big primary states with strong margins.
And then there's the fact 65% of all remaining delegates are in California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. All but California are closed primaries, and that probably much means at least 20 point Hillary wins (indeed, the available polls for NY, Penn and MD show huge leads). So I think we can realistically give him 20 point losses in four of the five. That basically leaves him needing to win California 70-30 at a minimum. First couple polls out show her up around 10% there. And that's not even including the possibility he losses Wisconsin, where he's currently polling behind. His odds of winning are still linked to her getting indicted more than anything else.